How Probily ensures fair, transparent, and manipulation-resistant markets
Our Approach
Probily is built on the principle that prediction markets only work when they are fair, transparent, and resistant to manipulation. We employ a multi-layered approach combining automated surveillance systems, economic mechanism design, on-chain transparency, and human oversight to maintain market integrity across all our markets.
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100%
On-chain settlement
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24/7
Automated monitoring
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<48h
Dispute resolution
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Multi-sig
Treasury controls
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Automated Market Maker (AMM)
✓Constant-function AMM makes large-scale manipulation economically impractical — moving the price requires proportional capital commitment
✓Price impact is proportional to trade size relative to liquidity, making it expensive to manipulate prices in liquid markets
✓The AMM naturally corrects prices back to fair value as arbitrageurs profit from any manipulation-induced mispricing
✓All AMM parameters are transparent and verifiable on-chain
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Surveillance & Detection
✓Automated pattern detection identifies wash trading, spoofing, layering, and coordinated manipulation in real-time
✓Account correlation analysis detects multi-account manipulation using behavioral and network analysis
✓High-frequency trading patterns are monitored and rate-limited to prevent bot abuse
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Resolution Framework
✓Every market has pre-defined resolution criteria and named sources published before the market opens
✓Resolution sources are publicly verifiable — Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CoinGecko, official government data, league results
✓A 3-member resolution committee reviews all disputed outcomes within 48 hours
✓Resolution decisions are final, recorded on-chain, and include written justification for disputed markets
✓Markets with genuinely ambiguous outcomes may be voided with full refunds to all participants
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On-Chain Transparency
✓All trades, settlements, and resolutions are recorded on Polygon and publicly verifiable by anyone
✓Smart contracts enforce resolution rules programmatically — no human can arbitrarily change outcomes
✓Treasury movements are controlled by multi-signature wallets requiring multiple approvals
✓Complete audit trail from market creation through resolution is permanently recorded on-chain
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Insider Trading Prevention
✓Trading patterns are analyzed for activity that may indicate material non-public information
✓Accounts flagged for suspicious pre-event trading are investigated and may be suspended
✓Market creators cannot trade on their own markets to prevent information asymmetry
✓Large position disclosures are required for positions exceeding 10% of market liquidity
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Account Security
✓Email verification required for all accounts
✓Enhanced KYC verification for large withdrawals (>$10,000)
✓Multi-factor authentication available for all accounts
✓Rate limiting on all trading and API endpoints to prevent abuse
✓Automated lockout after suspicious login attempts
Report Suspicious Activity
If you observe any suspicious trading activity, market manipulation, or incorrect resolutions, please report it immediately. All reports are investigated within 48 hours.